【财税论坛】2014年第十四期(总第89期)


2014-12-16 08:00:00 来源:中国人民大学    点击:1294

题目:Volatility and Economic Regimes Evidence from a Large Transitional Economy

时间:2014年12月17日 星期三   12:00 – 14:00

地点:明德主楼714

报告人:王博群

摘要:A dramatic decline in aggregate output volatility in China from central planning to market-oriented reforms in the past half century is documented in this paper. The output volatility measured by the standard deviation of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the specified rolling windows declined by 73% from 1953–1977 to 1978–2008. The sharpest reduction occurred in 1978 when China began to initiate a series of market reforms. Since the inception of these reforms, the volatility continued to decline, dropping more than 30% from 1978–1994 to 1995–2008. During the planning period, the co-movements in the provincial output, which reflected the systemic risks associated with the highly centralized economic and political systems in China, were found to be the primary source of the high output volatility.

报告人简介:王博群,美国约翰•霍普金斯大学博士候选人,主要研究领域为国际金融、宏观计量、中国经济等,在Papers in Regional Science等杂志发表论文,并有多篇工作论文。

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财税论坛是由中国人民大学财政与税收研究所主办,旨在研讨公共经济学中的理论研究和政策实践等问题,促进理论研究和公共政策的有效结合。论坛主题主要包括:政府行为、财政体制、税收体制及宏观经济等。诚邀各位同仁前来报告与研讨!
 

论坛主持人:薛涧坡(jpxue@ruc.edu.cn


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