学术论文

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  • 王国刚——《中国农村经济》:从金融功能看融资、普惠和服务“三农”

    中国经济已迈入新时代,但城乡间金融发展的不平衡,金融为"三农"服务的不充分,严重制约着乡村振兴战略和区域协调发展战略的有效实施.要破解这些不平衡不充分难题,需要跳出"融资"的思维框架,综合发挥各种金融功能.普惠金融不是一个理论问题,经济和金融理论中均无有关金融应服务于精英阶层和富人的原理.实践层面中存在的金融供给不足,偿债能力难以确定,资产权益难以确定,金融服务成本制约和营业稳定程度不足等,是引致金融普惠性难以充分发挥的主要成因,这些问题应当在实践中予以克服.在中国,长期困扰金融支持"三农"发展的主要成因有四:工农业产品剪刀差,农村资产难以确权,资产收益难有明确的财务簿记和金融运作成本过高.据此,实施普惠金融,支持乡村振兴战略落到实处,需要做好如下6项工作:落实土地确权工作,加速提高农业生产的集约化程度,进一步完善农业生产组织,充分运用手机,互联网等现代信息科技手段,充分发挥财政机制和慈善公益机制的作用,积极开展金融创新.

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    ​中国经济已迈入新时代,但城乡间金融发展的不平衡,金融为"三农"服务的不充分,严重制约着乡村振兴战略和区域协调发展战略的有效实施.要破解这些不平衡不充分难题,需要跳出"融资"的思维框...[点击详情]

    2019-03-01
  • 刘贯春,张成思——CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW——Does financial structure matter for economic growth in China

    Based on an extended neoclassical growth model, this paper explores the endogenous mechanism between financial structure and economic growth. Our theoretical analysis shows that there exists an optimal financial structure evolving to meet different demands of the real economy in the process of economic development. We then investigate whether financial structure matters for economic growth using a panel data of 29 provinces across the eastern, central, and western regions in China from 1996 to 2013. The empirical results show that financial structure has a significant impact on economic growth. However, the effect of financial structure on regional economic growth varies and presents an inverse U-shape. These results confirm the evolving effect of financial structure on economic growth at different stages of economic development.

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    Based on an extended neoclassical growth model, this paper explores the endogenous mechanism between financial structure and economic growth. Our theoretical analysis shows ...[点击详情]

    2018-12-17
  • MAO Haiou,张成思——EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE:Does Belt and Road Initiative Hurt Node Countries?A Study from Export Perspective

    The existing studies on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) primarily explain its impact on China€s trade or foreign direct investment, whereas its impact on node countries€ export performance to China has not been examined. By considering the BRI as external policy shock and incorporating €Five Connection€ indicators in the model, this article describes the mechanism and impact of the BRI on node countries€ exports to China. By using propensity score matching and a difference-in-difference approach, we tackle the endogeneity problem caused by self-selecting into the BRI node-country group. The estimates indicate that the BRI has an overall positive effect on node countries€ exports to China with an upward trend. The study also observes that facility connection, trade barriers reduction, financial integration, and people-to-people bond are efficient ways to enhance node countries€ exports. Further, the regional heterogeneity analysis finds a smaller positive effect on North African and on central and East Asian economies, while higher on other regions.

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    The existing studies on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) primarily explain its impact on China€s trade or foreign direct investment, whereas its impact on node countries...[点击详情]

    2018-12-17
  • 张成思,孙宇辰——INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE:whose confidence matters in chinese monetary policy

    Is confidence an important channel through which monetary policy affects the Chinese real economy? To answer this question, this paper uses a counterfactual structural vector autoregression method and examines the impulse responses of entrepreneurs' confidence to a monetary supply shock for China. The empirical results show that an easing monetary policy can inspire confidence and stimulate economic growth. However, the effectiveness of a positive policy will be undermined if the channel of confidence is removed. Further analysis reveals that the state of confidence matters for credit and pricing decisions. These findings are robust to different measures of monetary policy in China.


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    Is confidence an important channel through which monetary policy affects the Chinese real economy? To answer this question, this paper uses a counterfactual structural vecto...[点击详情]

    2018-12-17
  • Lei Jiang,Esfandiar Maasoumi,潘劼宁,吴轲——JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS:A Test of General Asymmetric Dependence

    We propose a modified mutual information measure to capture general asymmetric dependence between two random variables. Based on this measure, we propose a test of asymmetric dependence and examine its finite-sample performance. We show that our test has better power than competing tests with alternative dependence measures. Using the new test, we find significant asymmetric dependence in returns of commonly used stock portfolios and the market return both in the US and other developed countries. Further, the dependence between developed country markets and the US market is stronger when both markets are in a downturn.

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    We propose a modified mutual information measure to capture general asymmetric dependence between two random variables. Based on this measure, we propose a test of asymmetri...[点击详情]

    2018-12-04
  • 石丽娜,张顺明——《管理科学学报》:暧昧与部分知情交易的资产定价

    通过区分交易商的知情程度,本文引入了部分知情交易商,构建了暧昧环境中存在部分知情交易商的理性预期均衡模型,并在此基础上分析抑制内幕交易的措施对资产定价和福利水平的影响.研究结果表明:存在部分知情交易的金融市场上存在理性预期均衡,且相应的交易商分布均衡不唯一;差异系数的变化将引起完全知情交易商和不知情交易商的比例都发生同向变动,而完全知情交易商的表现最为敏感.同时还发现,转变成本的增加虽然能够抑制内幕交易,但福利水平也会下降;然而,通过降低差异系数虽不能明显抑制内幕交易,但可以减少极端交易;不知情交易商面临暧昧程度的下降也会起到抑制知情交易商的作用,同时有可能提高福利水平.

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    通过区分交易商的知情程度,本文引入了部分知情交易商,构建了暧昧环境中存在部分知情交易商的理性预期均衡模型,并在此基础上分析抑制内幕交易的措施对资产定价和福利水平的影响.研究结果...[点击详情]

    2018-12-01
  • Kevin X.D. Huang,Qinglai Meng,薛涧坡——JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING:Balanced-Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capita...

    Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997) demonstrate that a balanced-budget fiscal policy can induce aggregate instability unrelated to economic fundamentals. The empirical relevance of this result has been challenged by subsequent studies. In this paper we show, both analytically and numerically, that such extrinsic instability is an empirically robust plausibility associated with a balanced-budget rule once endogenous capital utilization is taken into consideration. This suggests that the design or operation of a balanced-budget fiscal policy must recognize that it may constitute a practical source of self-fulfilling prophecies and belief-driven fluctuations.

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    Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997) demonstrate that a balanced-budget fiscal policy can induce aggregate instability unrelated to economic fundamentals. The empirical relevance ...[点击详情]

    2018-12-01
  • 李凤云——JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE:Seasonality in the cross section of stock returns: Advanced markets versus emerging markets

    We extend the studies of stock return seasonality by Heston and Sadka (2008, 2010) to a comprehensive sample of 42 international markets, including 21 advanced markets and 21 emerging markets. The empirical results show a large variation in stock seasonality across markets and suggest that this phenomenon exists primarily in advanced markets. A winner–loser portfolio approach shows that return seasonality is economically significant in advanced markets but not in emerging markets. We conduct statistical, rational and behavioral analyses to explore the potential reasons for the seasonality observed in advanced markets and find that regression bias, the January effect, and the Fama–French–Carhart type risk premium all can partially explain this seasonality difference.

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    We extend the studies of stock return seasonality by Heston and Sadka (2008, 2010) to a comprehensive sample of 42 international markets, including 21 advanced markets and 2...[点击详情]

    2018-12-01
  • 张成思——《经济研究》:中国实业部门投融资决策机制研究——基于经济政策不确定性和融资约束异质性视角

    本文将经济政策不确定性引入三期动态投融资模型,基于融资约束条件对中国实体企业进行分类,阐释经济政策不确定性对不同融资约束企业的投融资决策的差异化影响,并利用2007—2017年非金融类上市公司的季度数据开展实证检验.理论分析和计量结果一致表明,无论企业的融资约束高低,经济政策不确定性升高均会导致固定资产投资下降,但融资决策的调整依赖于所面临的融资约束程度.特别地,杠杆率下降幅度和现金持有向上调整幅度在低融资约束企业要明显弱于高融资约束企业.进一步的机制分析还发现,经济政策不确定性通过未来现金流预期,固定资产收益率和现金流不确定性影响企业投融资决策,但不显著影响债务融资成本.

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    本文将经济政策不确定性引入三期动态投融资模型,基于融资约束条件对中国实体企业进行分类,阐释经济政策不确定性对不同融资约束企业的投融资决策的差异化影响,并利用2007—2017年非金融类...[点击详情]

    2018-11-27
  • 张成思,郑宁——《世界经济》:中国非金融企业的金融投资行为的影响机制研究

    本文构建了中国非金融企业的金融投资行为影响机制理论模型,基于微观企业面对实业投资和金融投资两大类资产的投资组合选择背景,拓展已有研究关于企业投资组合模型中金融投资无风险的假设,同时考虑金融投资风险和固定投资风险,推演出与现实情况更加贴近的理论模型。本文证明拓展模型与传统模型的机制存在本质区别。基于中国A股非金融上市公司面板数据的计量分析表明:中国非金融企业金融投资行为的显著驱动因素是固定资产投资的风险占比,而不是金融资产与固定资产的投资收益率缺口。

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    本文构建了中国非金融企业的金融投资行为影响机制理论模型,基于微观企业面对实业投资和金融投资两大类资产的投资组合选择背景,拓展已有研究关于企业投资组合模型中金融投资无风险的假设,...[点击详情]

    2018-11-27
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